Waldorf, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

277
FXUS61 KLWX 010217
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
917 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region late tonight into
Saturday morning. High pressure will then build to our north
Saturday before pushing offshore on Sunday. As low pressure
passes to the north, a warm front will lift through the area by
Monday morning, followed by a cold front Monday night. Another
low pressure system may approach toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An area of low pressure continues to track eastward across PA
this evening, and will eventually progress offshore overnight. A
trailing upper level system over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys is
in the process of transitioning from a closed low to more of an
open wave as it begins to feel the influence of a northern
stream shortwave passing to our north across southern
Ontario/Quebec. A band of precipitation is evident downstream of
the upper level system within a low-level warm/moist advection
regime, extending all the way from Florida northward to
southern New England. This band of rain covers the majority of
the forecast area this evening, with far western locations just
starting to dry out. This band of rain will make slow eastward
progress over the course of the night, gradually bringing rain
to an end from west to east. Rain should end along the I-81
corridor over the next hour or two; along the I-95 corridor
between roughly 11 PM and 2 AM; and finally clear southern
Maryland by around 3 or 4 AM. Light precipitation will linger
through the second half of the night within upslope flow in the
Alleghenies. Light rain showers may briefly turn to snow or
freezing drizzle for a short time before ending. A coating of
snow may be possible in the Alleghenies with this activity late
tonight.

The system`s cold front will move through the area from north to
south just prior to/around daybreak. Winds will shift around to
out of the north behind the front, and could gust to around
25-30 knots around daybreak. Low temperatures will range from
the upper 20s in the mountains to the mid 40s across central
Virginia, with most locations seeing lows in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of the cold front Saturday morning, northwest winds
will increase sharply, with 20-30 mph gusts possible. The front
may also be accompanied by a band of clouds, but these should
clear out by midday, and gusts should start decreasing in the
afternoon. High temperatures will remain a little above normal
in the 40s and lower 50s. As the high slides to the north
Saturday night, low temperatures will drop into the 20s.

The high will be over New England by Sunday morning, resulting
in onshore surface flow. Meanwhile southwesterly winds aloft
will cause warm advection to occur. Precipitation appears
unlikely, but clouds will thicken. Can`t totally rule out some
freezing drizzle on the eastern slopes of the Alleghenies Sunday
morning, although models like the NAM tend to be oversaturated
in cases like this. Have forecast high temperatures in the 40s,
but this will depend on the thickness of the cloud cover. The
high will progress eastward Sunday night as low pressure moves
north of the Great Lakes. Lows could occur during the evening
with nearly steady or locally rising temperatures overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure to our south will keep a light moderating flow in
across our region Monday. This will give us dry and warm
conditions. High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to
middle 60s. A cold front, moisture-starved, will sag
southeastward across the region Monday night. There could be a
couple of sprinkles or a brief rain shower in the mountains in
the west; otherwise, dry conditions will accompany the front.
Monday night`s low temperatures will only drop to near 40. This
is about 15 degrees above average. Some cooler air will filter
in overnight on a northwest wind.

A separate area of high pressure that is expected to build on the
north side of the cold front on Tuesday and should bring slightly
cooler and dry conditions to the region into Tuesday night. Highs
will be cooler than Monday, but still about 10 degrees above
average. Low temperatures will be cooler as well.

A weak low pressure system will scoot across the area early
Wednesday, bringing a slight chance for rain or perhaps some
freezing rain if the precipitation arrives during the coldest time
of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Otherwise, this mix of rain
and freezing rain should become all rain Wednesday midday and
afternoon as a warm front develops and moves north across the
region. The chance for rain continues Wednesday night and throughout
the day Thursday ahead of another low pressure system. High
temperatures will be slightly above average Wednesday and could
reach the 50 degree mark.

The warm air surges north and northeastward on Thursday behind a
warm front and ahead of a low pressure system and its associated
cold front. Highs could reach well into the 60s. There is also a
good chance of encountering rainfall as previously mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain continues across the area this evening, but ceilings and
visbys remain largely VFR. Winds are out of the south to
southwest, and LLWS will remain possible through the first half
of the night. Rain will slowly exit the area from west to east
tonight, clearing IAD/DCA/BWI around midnight. Continued VFR
conditions are expected after the rain exits, with winds slowly
veering around to westerly. The system`s cold front will move
through just prior to daybreak, leading to an abrupt shift to
north- northwesterly winds. There may be a band of MVFR ceilings
in the vicinity of the front, but these will clear out by
midday Saturday, if they occur at all. VFR conditions and
northerly wind are expected through the day Saturday, with gusts
to around 25-30 knots possible during the morning. Gusts
gradually diminish during the afternoon as high pressure builds
to the north.

Sub-VFR ceilings are possible Sunday as a warm front lifts toward
the area. Also will see some gusty southerly winds up to 20
knots, especially at CHO.

VFR conditions Monday through Tuesday night. Winds southwest
becoming northwest Monday into Monday night 5 to 10 knots. Winds
becoming northeast and light Tuesday, before veering to the east 5
to 10 knots Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will diminish this evening and shift to the west
overnight. The primary cold front will move through around dawn
Saturday, with a surge of north-northwesterly winds up to 25-30
kt. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Saturday into
Saturday night as a result. Winds will then diminish by around
midnight as high pressure moves to the north.

Easterly flow on Sunday will gradually become southerly Sunday
night as a warm front lifts through. Sub-advisory conditions are
forecast at this time, but it may be close.

No marine hazards expected Monday through Tuesday night. Winds
southwest becoming northwest Monday into Monday night 10 knots.
Winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...ADS/CJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/CJL/KJP
MARINE...ADS/KLW/CJL/KJP